High School Grads Now Find Jobs Faster Than College Grads for the First Time Since the 1970s

For decades, the promise was simple: get a college degree, find a job faster, earn more money. That promise is now officially broken.

A groundbreaking study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland released this week reveals something that would have seemed impossible a generation ago. Young high school graduates now find jobs faster than young college graduates. The unemployment gap between these two groups has shrunk to just 2.5 percentage points, the lowest level since researchers started tracking this data in the late 1970s.

This isn’t a temporary blip caused by the pandemic or a tight labor market. The Cleveland Fed researchers traced this decline back to the year 2000 and found it represents a fundamental, long-term shift in how employers value educational credentials. If you’re currently preparing for your job search, this study changes everything you thought you knew about the value of your degree.

By the end of this article, you’ll understand exactly what’s driving this historic shift, why it matters for your career, and most importantly, what you can do about it. Whether you’re a recent graduate, a parent weighing the ROI of college tuition, or a career changer considering going back to school, this data demands your attention.

What the Federal Reserve Study Actually Found

The Cleveland Fed analyzed nearly 50 years of employment data from the Current Population Survey, focusing on workers aged 22 to 27. Their findings challenge one of the most deeply held assumptions in American society about the value of higher education.

The job-finding advantage for college graduates has completely disappeared. Prior to 2000, college graduates found jobs significantly faster than high school graduates. A typical college grad would land a job in about two to two and a half months of searching, while a high school grad took closer to four to four and a half months. Today, both groups take approximately the same amount of time: around four and a half months.

The researchers measured what they call the “exit rate from unemployment,” which tracks how quickly people move from unemployed to employed. Here’s what they found:

• College graduate exit rate from unemployment: 37.1% (meaning about 37% of unemployed college grads find work or stop looking each month)
• High school graduate exit rate: 41.5%
• Historical college graduate exit rate: 47.0%

That’s a nearly 10 percentage point decline for college graduates over the past two decades. Meanwhile, high school graduates have maintained their historical average.

Interview Guys Tip: When a hiring manager sees your resume, they’re not just looking at your degree anymore. They’re asking, “What can this person actually do for us starting day one?” Focus your resume on demonstrable skills and quantifiable achievements, not just your educational credentials.

The reality is that most resume templates weren’t built with ATS systems or AI screening in mind, which means they might be getting filtered out before a human ever sees them. That’s why we created these free ATS and AI proof resume templates:

Why This Is Happening Now

The Cleveland Fed researchers explicitly examined whether this trend could be explained by the pandemic or recent developments in AI. Their conclusion? Neither factor is the primary driver.

The decline in college graduate job-finding rates began around 2000 and has continued steadily for 25 years. This timing coincides with what labor economists call the shift from “college-biased” to “education-neutral” technological growth. In plain English: technology used to favor workers with college degrees, but that’s no longer the case.

Several factors are contributing to this historic shift:

• More graduates competing for the same jobs. College attainment has grown significantly, meaning more people are entering the workforce with degrees. When everyone has a degree, having one no longer makes you stand out. The supply of college-educated workers has simply outpaced employer demand.

• Entry-level positions are disappearing. Companies are increasingly using AI and automation to handle tasks that were traditionally assigned to recent graduates. Those first-rung jobs that helped new grads build experience and prove themselves are becoming scarce.

• Skills-based hiring is on the rise. Many employers have quietly stopped requiring degrees for positions that previously demanded them. Skills-based hiring is becoming the norm, not the exception. Major companies from Google to IBM have publicly dropped degree requirements for many roles.

• The trades are booming. Meanwhile, high-paying trade jobs remain chronically understaffed. Electricians, plumbers, HVAC technicians, and similar roles offer strong wages and immediate employment for those willing to take a different path.

What Hasn’t Changed: The Advantages College Grads Still Have

Before you tear up your diploma or pull your kid out of college, the Cleveland Fed study does document areas where a college degree still matters significantly.

• Job security remains higher for college graduates. The researchers found that once employed, college graduates experience lower “separation rates” than high school graduates. In other words, they’re less likely to lose their jobs. This matters enormously over the course of a career.

• Wages are still substantially higher. The college wage premium, while not the focus of this study, remains well documented. College graduates continue to earn significantly more than high school graduates over their lifetimes.

• The entry rate into unemployment is lower. College graduates are less likely to become unemployed in the first place. High school graduates have higher entry rates into unemployment, meaning they face more job losses and instability throughout their careers.

Interview Guys Tip: Think of a college degree as a floor, not a ceiling. It helps protect you once you’re employed, but it’s no longer the express ticket to getting hired that it used to be. You need to layer skills, experience, and a strong personal brand on top of that educational foundation.

What This Means for Different Job Seekers

The implications of this research vary significantly depending on where you are in your career journey.

For Recent College Graduates

The job market is genuinely harder than it was for previous generations. This isn’t your imagination, and it’s not because you’re doing something wrong. The structural dynamics have shifted.

Your degree alone won’t differentiate you from other applicants. You need to:

• Build a portfolio of projects, internships, or freelance work that demonstrates what you can actually do
• Develop specific, in-demand skills rather than relying on general knowledge
• Network aggressively, since personal connections often matter more than credentials
• Consider entry-level positions in growing industries rather than holding out for your “dream job”

For High School Graduates Considering College

This data doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go to college. It means you should go for the right reasons and with a clear strategy.

If you’re choosing between a four-year degree with unclear career applications and a trade program that leads directly to employment, the math has shifted. Run the numbers honestly. Consider the debt, the opportunity cost, and the career outcomes for your specific field of study.

If you do pursue a degree, choose a major with clear career pathways. Supplement your coursework with internships, co-ops, and skill-building experiences that employers actually value.

For Parents Funding Education

The return on investment calculation for college has fundamentally changed. A degree from an expensive private university in a field with limited job prospects may no longer be a sound investment.

Have honest conversations with your children about:

• What career they’re actually pursuing (not just what sounds interesting)
• The employment rates and starting salaries for their chosen major
• Alternative paths like community college, trade schools, or free certification programs
• How they’ll differentiate themselves from other graduates

For Career Changers

If you’re considering going back to school to change careers, this research should give you pause. A degree might not accelerate your job search the way you expect.

Consider instead:

• Building skills through online courses, bootcamps, or self-directed learning
• Finding ways to gain experience in your target field while still employed
• Leveraging your existing professional network to find opportunities
• Focusing on transferable skills that apply across industries

How to Compete When a Degree Isn’t Enough

The Cleveland Fed study makes clear that job seekers need a new playbook. Here’s how to stand out when everyone else has the same credentials.

Lead with Skills, Not Credentials

When you write your resume, put your skills and accomplishments before your education. Hiring managers are looking for evidence that you can solve their problems, not proof that you sat in classrooms.

Create a skills section that highlights:

• Technical abilities specific to your target role
• Tools, software, and platforms you can use effectively
• Quantifiable achievements from previous work, projects, or volunteer experiences
• Certifications that demonstrate specialized knowledge

Build Experience Any Way You Can

In a market where everyone has a degree, experience becomes the differentiator. If you’re short on traditional work experience:

• Take on freelance projects through platforms like Upwork or Fiverr
• Volunteer for nonprofits in roles related to your career goals
• Build personal projects that showcase your abilities
• Contribute to open-source projects or professional communities

Network Strategically

When AI and applicant tracking systems are filtering out thousands of resumes, personal connections become your secret weapon. Focus on building authentic relationships with people in your target industry.

Attend industry events, engage thoughtfully on LinkedIn, and don’t be afraid to reach out directly to people whose careers you admire. A referral from an insider can get your resume to the top of the pile when a degree alone won’t.

Interview Guys Tip: The hidden job market is real. Many positions are filled through referrals before they’re ever posted publicly. If you’re only applying to jobs online, you’re competing in the hardest possible arena. Invest equal energy in networking and relationship building.

Develop Your Personal Brand

When credentials don’t differentiate you, personal brand matters more. Build a professional presence that demonstrates your expertise and thought leadership.

This might include:

• A LinkedIn profile that showcases projects and achievements, not just job titles
• A personal website or portfolio displaying your work
• Thoughtful content creation that positions you as knowledgeable in your field
• Speaking engagements, podcast appearances, or other visibility opportunities

The Bigger Picture: What This Trend Signals

This shift in job-finding rates isn’t happening in isolation. It’s part of a broader transformation in how the economy values different types of work and workers.

The researchers at the Cleveland Fed note that if this trend continues, we may see significant changes in how Americans view higher education. The assumptions that have driven college enrollment for generations, that a degree is the surest path to economic security, are being tested by the data.

This doesn’t mean education itself has become less valuable. Learning, growth, and intellectual development remain important throughout life. But the specific economic calculus of “invest in a degree, get a faster path to employment” has broken down.

Employers are increasingly asking what you can do, not where you learned to do it. They want evidence of capability, not just credentials. And in a world where AI is reshaping the workplace, adaptability and practical skills may matter more than ever.

Putting It All Together

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has documented something many job seekers have felt intuitively: having a college degree doesn’t give you the edge it used to. For the first time since the 1970s, high school graduates are finding jobs faster than college graduates.

This isn’t a reason to panic if you have a degree or skip college if you don’t. The picture is more nuanced than that. College graduates still enjoy higher wages and better job security once employed. But the guarantee of faster hiring that came with a diploma? That advantage has evaporated.

The job seekers who will thrive in this new environment are those who combine education (whether formal or self-directed) with demonstrable skills, real experience, and strategic networking. Your degree opens doors, but it no longer walks you through them.

If you’re currently searching for a job, focus on what you can do, not just what you’ve studied. Build projects, gain experience, develop your network, and make it impossible for employers to overlook you. The market has changed, but with the right approach, you can still succeed.

Good luck!

The reality is that most resume templates weren’t built with ATS systems or AI screening in mind, which means they might be getting filtered out before a human ever sees them. That’s why we created these free ATS and AI proof resume templates:

---